Charter reform measure racks up heavy-hitter endorsements.

Will it be enough to push reform over the finish line?

Over a hundred organizations and community leaders have lined up behind Measure 26-228, referred by the Charter Commission.

Will voters, many of whom are still processing the ambitious proposal, rely on endorsements to make up their mind?

Rose City Reform caught up with local pollster John Horvick to ask how endorsements play into the decision-making of voters.

It’s October, and you know what that means!

No, I’m not talking about the turning of the leaves, the smell of roasting pumpkin seeds, or spooky sightings on neighborhood streets.

I’m talking about ballots dropping through your mail slot!

And, of course, the arrival of the voters’ pamphlet.

If you’ve ever perused this unassuming little booklet, you know it provides information about political candidates and measures that will appear on your ballot.

Perhaps equally importantly, at least from a decision-making perspective, the pamphlet also includes organizational and individual endorsements.

Spoiler alert: The Charter Commission’s ballot measure has a lot of them.

Endorsements from a broad coalition, including unions.

Over a hundred organizations and community leaders have thrown their weight behind Measure 26-228.

Although not all of those names appear in the voters’ pamphlet, the complete list of endorsers includes over fifty organizations and thirteen elected officials.

Among the organizations urging a yes vote on charter reform are The League of Women Voters, City Club of Portland, NAACP, ACLU, the Coalition of Communities of Color, Common Cause and the Multnomah County Democrats.

Of particular note are four unions, which tend to be the most sought-after endorsements for political campaigns.

Portland Association of Teachers, Laborers’ International Union of North America Local 737, Service Employees International Union Local 49, and the Oregon Federation of Nurses & Health Professionals are all supporters of the Charter Commission’s ballot measure.

How much do endorsements matter?

Rose City Reform turned to John Horvick, senior Vice President of local polling firm DHM Research, to ask how much stock voters tend to put in endorsements.

“The importance of endorsements is inversely proportional to the level of familiarity that voters have with a candidate or issue,” Horvick says.

“Endorsements matter the least in presidential elections and matter more and more as you go further down the ballot. When issues are complicated and not very salient, voters look to trusted sources to make their decisions.”

Speaking generally about voting behavior, and not specifically about Measure 26-228, Horvick says voters value endorsements from organizations and individuals they know and trust, and rely less on the sheer number of listed organizations urging yes or no on a particular issue or candidate.

Union endorsements equal big win for campaigns.

Why do political campaigns place so much weight on union endorsements?

John Horvick says there are three main reasons.

“The public tends to think positively about unions, unions represent a lot of people, and unions do actual physical work of getting the vote out, such as knocking on doors and sending out mailers.”

But not everyone is swayed by union support.

Some voters are put off by union endorsements, Horvick points out. He estimates that between 25% and 30% of statewide voters fall into this category. In the liberal stronghold of Portland, he believes the percentage is slightly lower.

“Generally, most Oregonians value public sector unions,” explains Horvick, adding that unions representing nurses and teachers tend to get the most favorable reactions from voters.

Do voters actually read the voters’ pamphlet?

There’s no data on the exact number of voters who read the voters’ pamphlet.

But John Horvick’s own research suggests that the guide often plays into voters’ decisions.

A DHM statewide survey from 2018 found that 63% of respondents typically read the voters’ pamphlet to learn about candidates and ballot measures that would appear on their ballots.

The same survey showed that when it came to ballot measures specifically, 89% of respondents read both the official measure description and the arguments for and against the measure.

“Sitting down and reading the voters’ pamphlet is very much a part of Oregonians’ voting habits,” Horvick concludes.

Not all praise for Measure 26-228.

Measure 26-288 gets some pushback in the voters’ pamphlet as well.

Former charter commissioner Vadim Mozyrsky, who leads a PAC opposing the measure, is listed alongside two current charter commissioners, David Knowles and David Chen, urging Portlanders to vote no.

Also listed in opposition is City Commissioner Mingus Mapps alongside a number of community leaders and former elected officials, as well as the Portland Party, and the Taxpayer Association of Oregon.

A recent DHM survey of 420 likely Portland voters showed 63% support for the Charter Commission’s ballot measure. However, when respondents were presented with arguments against the measure, support dropped to 49%.

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In other charter reform news:

Yesterday, the Ulysses PAC – spearheaded by City Commissioner Mingus Mapps – unveiled its alternative charter reform proposal.

If Portlanders reject the Charter Commission’s ballot measure in November, Mapps hopes to usher the PAC’s plan through City Council to a 2023 referendum.

Not much has changed since Rose City Reform covered the conceptual plan on September 20, but here’s an updated breakdown of the differences between Measure 26-228 and the Ulysses draft.